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The result is a severe underestimate of the number of New Latinos. National studies that rely solely on the Hispanic origin question of the decennial census find only modest growth for such major sources of Hispanic immigration as El Salvador (+16%) and Colombia (+24%). States and metropolitan areas where New Latinos are particularly concentrated are dramatically affected by this problem. In the State of California, for example, the census estimated the number of Salvadorans in 1990 as 339,000; ten years later the estimate is only 273,000. In Miami the census counted 74,000 Nicaraguans a decade ago, but only 69,000 in 2000. It is implausible that these New Latino groups actually fell in this period of intensified immigration. We conclude that their number has been understated as a result of the large Other Hispanic count in Census 2000.

Another reason to be wary of the Census 2000 estimates is that they diverge so widely from the results of other studies conducted by the Bureau of the Census. To illustrate this point, consider the share of Hispanics who are reported to be from Central or South America:

Table 2.  Results from three studies by the Bureau of the Census in Spring 2000

 

 

 

 

 

 

% Central or

Implied

 

% Other Hispanic

 South American

Population*

 

 

 

 

Census 2000

17.6%

8.6%

3,035,800

Supplemental Survey

9.6%

11.4%

4,024,200

Current Population Survey

6.1%

14.0%

4,942,000

 

 

 

 

* Based on 35.3 million Hispanics in Census 2000

 

 

As Table 2 shows, the estimates of the number of Central and South Americans are very different in these three sources: 3 million in Census 2000 (which classed 17.6% as Other Hispanic), a million more in the Census 2000 Supplemental Survey conducted at the same time (based on a sample of nearly 700,000 and which classed only 9.6% as Other Hispanic), and almost another million in the March 2000 Current Population Survey (with a sample of about 120,000 and only 6.1% Other Hispanic).

In this report we present improved estimates of the size of New Latino groups, compared to relying solely on the Hispanic origin question in Census 2000. Our procedure uses the Current Population Survey, which has the advantage of being conducted in person or by telephone, as the basis for determining what is the percentage of Hispanics who “really” should be classified as Other Hispanic. We then apply this target to Census 2000 data at the level of census tracts. Where the census has an excessive number of Other Hispanics, we allocate them across specific national origin groups according to a pre-established formula. Details of the procedure for 1990 and 2000 are documented in the Appendix to this report.

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